Green Aviation

IAE says carbon price must reach $110 per tonne!

The International Energy Agency has warned that the price of carbon credits will need to reach $50 per tonne of CO2 by 2020 and $110 by 2030 to make high-tech solutions to climate change economically attractive. Carbon permits now trade at less than $2 a tonne in the European Union.

So what does that mean for airlines now entering the EU ETS? We at GreenAviation believe that the legislators, with an unlikely and unintended “alliance” between the financial community and environmental lobbyists will in their own interest place pressure on the EU and Member States following the failure of the Copenhagen COP15 meeting in December. The EU is likely in 2010-11 to take steps to bolster their own commitments to tackling climate change and cold result in a tighter carbon market. Howeverthis needs to be counter-balanced in the short term since there are likely to be some downward pressures on the carbon price such as surplus permits from Bulgaria starting to enter the EU market from February 2010 onwards. Medium term onwards, and with a recovering economy, and oil price, are likely to give support to the carbon price.

We think that EUAs in the EU ETS may be back at their “natural” level of EUR 30+ by 2012/13. Regardless of any forecast which could be way off the mark, all airline CFO / COOs really need to do their own homework and consider taking specialist investment advice and decide if, and how much, carbon they should be purchasing in 2010 to build up their carbon account for CO2 compliance in 2013. Or should they wait until 2013 and buy at auction or on the open market? What other options do aircraft operators have for minimising their ETS costs and risks?

Green Aviation International’s highly expert, impartial “Aviation ETS Solutions” department can help aircraft operators make very clear sense of all this. Just contact us here for a completely confidential, expert, impartial evaluation with no obligations whatsoever.

To get the IAE report and related information go to their site here

Sir Richard Branson shares his vision!

NEW! Check Carbon Market Prices!

You can check the link below the current and historic prices of CO2 on Europe’s biggest exchange, ECX. 

December 2012 carbon prices ALREADY being traded today and it is important that airlines already recognise that a carbon market exists, as well as the huge potential volatility in market prices. Such volatility could costs airlines literally tens of millions of Euros / Dollars, even hundreds of millions, if they do not prepare for the ETS early enough. 

We predict that in 2012, as the airlines are required to join the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, it will coincide with an existing forecast shortage of carbon project deliveries in to the market place, accerbated by the lack of credit to finance these projects which need to deliver by 2012. This shortage may more than offset the reduced demand for carbon due to lower industrial production as a consequence of he recession. Put another way, there will be a large imbalance between supply and demand and this shortage of carbon available to buy in the marketplace will, in our opinion, drive up prices to the €30-€50 range in 2012-13 timeframe. Peaks of €34 were already achieved in 2008. Learn more as to how you can prepare at our dedicated page.

Carbon 2012